Misleading metrics

Don’t take statistics at face value.

The outstanding predictor of longevity isn’t diet or exercise – it’s patchy birth records. Introducing proper records in the late 19th century reduced by more than two-thirds the number of babies who would eventually seem to reach the age of 110. That suggests that, until recently, seven out of 10 apparent supercentenarians were, in fact, younger than claimed.

The UK has seen a steep rise in worklessness due to long-term sickness, but what does this really tell us? In fact it says more about the benefit system than public health. Health problems aren’t actually becoming more common, but health-related payments have become more generous than unemployment benefits; making it more attractive for the workless to cite health as a reason for not having a job.

The opening of a new Waitrose supposedly adds £36,000 to the value of nearby properties. But this ‘Waitrose effect’ is the result of reverse correlation: the supermarket chooses store locations that are already expensive.