It’s rarely thought of as the key to national productivity. But without it, people in hot countries can work only in the cool early-morning hours or at dusk. That’s why there is a strong correlation between GDP and temperature, and why Singapore’s founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, said “the first thing I did upon becoming prime minister was to install air conditioners in buildings where the civil service worked.”
Products of our environment
Our behaviour is shaped by forces outside our control.
Basketball is definitely not a sport of equal opportunity. Height is so important, that if you know an American man taller than 7ft (and aged between 20 and 40), there is a one-in-six chance he will currently be playing in the NBA.
The legal system is just one domain in which our looks determine our outcome: judges fine unattractive criminals more than attractive ones.
People are 2.5x more likely to switch brands after a major life event e.g. new job, marriage, retirement. (Note, this is based on claimed brand usage).
Want to be a CEO? It helps to be tall. In the U.S, 14.5% of men are 6ft or taller. Among CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, 58% are 6ft or taller (4x increase).
One of the main determinants of whether people donate to charity is not whether they can afford to but whether they are asked to. The percentage of people being frequently asked to donate plummeted during Covid-19. Sure enough, the percentage who donated fell – and only really recovered at the end of 2023, when charities started asking again.
Clock changes are no laughing matter: leaving Daylight Savings Time in the autumn increases minor road accidents by 13%, when an hour of sunlight is reallocated back to the morning and it is darker in the evenings.
Every governing party facing election in a developed country lost vote share in 2024, the first time this has ever happened.
Want to get into Harvard? Make sure your parents went there. Legacy students have a 33% chance of winning a place vs 6% for the rest. (Alternatively, become an elite athlete and your chance of getting in goes up to 86%)
Want to become an NBA player? It helps if your dad played in the league. And you can massively increase your odds of becoming President by the same token (though beware low sample sizes for that stat).
Aside from China (a country with 1.4 billion people and rising wealth), the countries with the most Olympic medals are all high-income democracies. Why is this? They are good at taking care of their inhabitants. Even in the remotest outposts of Norway, for instance, there’s generally an all-weather sports ground around the corner. Usually the changing rooms are warm, the coaches have diplomas, and kids can train and play at a reasonable price.
What causes riots? A study of unrest in 50 African and Asian cities found that “peak levels of unrest occur in the upper 20s [degrees centigrade]”. In short, heat makes it nicer to be outside at night. It’s not a coincidence that the 2011 London riots started in peak August.
Streetlights reduce nighttime crime by 36% and reduce “serious offending” by 4%. This is roughly the same reduction in crime you would expect from a 10% increase in policing.
Some supermarket sections, like the bakery, are visited by almost every shopper, while others, like greeting cards have few visitors. According to shopper scientist Herb Sorensen, 85% of in store behaviour can be accounted for by shoppers’ location, rather than the products in front of them.
Weather is not just for small talk – it has a greater impact on a store’s sales than either inflation or unemployment. Interestingly, of the four weather conditions assessed, high are by far the most likely to influence shopping.